2025 Lookahead: What to Expect in Travel

The travel industry truly thrived in 2024: passenger volumes remained strong and overall contribution to the GDP by the global industry is estimated to increase over 12% from last year. But on the heels of a contentious presidential election in the U.S. and lingering economic uncertainties, the outlook for 2025 is uncertain. Monthly tracking data on travel behaviors and expectations from Morning Consult helps illuminate some factors that will shape the coming year of travel. 

Reduced international inbound travel will drive more domestic trips for Americans

Travelers’ destination preferences shifted during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when those who were willing and able to travel favored road trips to off-the-beaten-path, quieter destinations. But since then, preferences have become entrenched, with little change over the past year aside from a slight uptick in consumers saying they plan to travel to previously-visited locations.

But 2025 could shake up those behaviors. The incoming Trump administration may pull back on the number of visas issued to international visitors hoping to travel the U.S., slowing the flow of inbound tourism. This would be a reversal of course from the Biden administration, who took steps to relieve an existing backlog of visa applications.

For travelers stateside, that may mean fewer visitors to major sites and landmarks, and could give some license to Americans who are concerned about overtourism to visit some major U.S. destinations with fewer crowds. As such, we should look for an uptick in trips planned to national parks, theme parks and major U.S. tourist attractions, which may come at the expense of international travel plans.

Changes to the economy with a new presidential administration will impact willingness to travel

With an incoming change in administration, consumers are expecting a change in the state of the economy — of course the expectation of whether it becomes better or worse depends on which side of the political spectrum a consumer finds him or herself. But no matter which direction the economy moves, it will have an impact on travelers’ willingness to plan a leisure trip.

Overall, a consumer’s personal financial situation has more of an impact on whether or not they travel than the economy as a whole, but that impact skews positive for most groups — in other words, the state of consumers' personal finances are encouraging leisure travel. The state of the economy as a whole, on the other hand, tends to have a more negative effect.

As of the first week of November 2024 (notably just before the election), the state of the economy had an outsized negative impact on some consumer groups — Gen Xers and political independents were more likely to say the economy was negatively impacting their willingness to travel. Other subgroups such as high earners and Republicans say the same, but the shares fall within the survey’s margin of error. But given post-election shifts in consumer sentiment across the political parties, we may expect a reversal in 2025, with Democrats expressing more hesitancy due to the economy rather than Republicans and independents.

Live event travel will give way to wellness getaways

Yes, the likes of Billie Eilish, Coldplay and Metallica are touring in 2025, and some major annual sporting events (think the Super Bowl and Wimbledon) will spur travel bookings. But it will be very hard to top the summer of 2024 when travelers splashed out for the Olympics, the Eras Tour, the Euro tournament and more. While summer 2024 travel was driven by marquee events, 2025 trips will see the pendulum swinging the other way, with more trips driven by escape and wellness pursuits.

The framing of this varies slightly by generation, with older travelers prioritizing relaxation and escape, while younger generations more explicitly focus on bettering their mental health. Amongst millennials in particular, who were most engaged with the event travel trend of 2024, the intent to travel to improve mental health has grown 9 percentage points since the summer. 

This desire for holistic wellness can influence travel brands’ services and messaging, as they aim to meet travelers where they are in 2025.

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