U.S. Jobs and Labor Tracker
This tracker page and its associated data files rely on multiple surveys aiming to provide a detailed assessment of the current state of the U.S. labor market, featuring proprietary data that supplements government sources by providing enhanced scale, frequency and depth.
Key Takeaways
Since the summer, the unemployment index has generally been falling - indicating lower rates of unemployment.
In the last two weeks, the unemployment rate moved up and down, settling very close to the natural unemployment rate.
The consensus forecast for the Bureau of Labor Statistics November unemployment rate shows a slight uptick from 4.1% to 4.2%. Despite the potential minor upward move- which may be reflecting some of the seasonal dynamics- the rate is still below the recent peak of summer 2024.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
Unemployment Index
Since August 2020, Morning Consult has been gathering daily data on the employment status of U.S. consumers. Although the methodology differs, this survey uses the same definition as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to determine the national unemployment rate. Consequently, Morning Consult’s high-frequency data provides valuable insights into real-time joblessness fluctuations.
The Unemployment Index is designed with ease of interpretation in mind. The index’s base value of 100 is intended to be consistent with a “neutral” (or, in economic terms, natural) unemployment rate. This value would equate to the lowest level of joblessness the economy could theoretically sustain without triggering elevated inflation.
More about the construction of the index and the methodology can be found here.
About the survey:
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
Demographic breakout
U.S. Lost Pay/Income tracker
Morning Consult’s U.S. Lost Pay/Income data provides an early, high frequency indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market. The survey closely tracks initial unemployment claims. However, unlike weekly unemployment claims data, our data includes adults who lost pay or income but were either ineligible for unemployment benefits or did not apply for them, thus providing a more holistic signal of the strength of demand for workers. The survey is conducted weekly among a representative sample of U.S. adults. The weekly fielding period ends each Saturday, with results for that week available on Sunday.
About the survey:
- Began fielding: April 2020
- Frequency: Weekly
- Fielding period: Ending each Saturday
- Sample size: Approximately 20,000 adults
- Geographic coverage: United States
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ and MCEI clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
Lost Pay and Income
Job Search Activity
Morning Consult's U.S. Job Search Activity data provides an always-on gauge of the jobs market by asking about job search activity, providing enhanced scale, frequency and depth compared with traditional data sets. The question is asked in over 40 countries, while this chart pack provides data on only the United States.
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ and MCEI clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
Job Search Activity
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
