U.S. Inflation and Supply Chains Tracker

Morning Consult’s Price Surprise Index monitors how often consumers encounter higher-than-expected prices when purchasing goods and services, closely mirroring top-line annual inflation as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Generally, price surprise tends to be negative since consumers usually have an accurate sense of the costs of goods and services. Consequently, a month-over-month increase or decrease in the index reflects consumers' perception of a corresponding change in prices.

• Price Surprise: Net share of consumers reporting higher than expected pricing
• Calculation: Purchased a product or a service for a higher-than-expected price minus purchased for a price close to or below expectations

Morning Consult's Price Sensitivity Index, indicative of demand changes in response to inflation, measures the extent to which consumers avoid purchases due to prices exceeding their expectations. A neutral value at the product or service category level indicates an equal proportion of adults walked away from a prospective purchases as the share who proceeded with a purchase despite the higher price. Thus, a higher index figure for a product or service category signifies reduced demand for that product or service.

• Price Sensitivity: Willingness to forgo a purchase when faced with higher-than-expected pricing
• Calculation: Did not purchase because price was too high minus purchased for higher-than-expected price

Morning Consult's Substitutability Index measures the "trading down" behaviors of U.S. consumers. A neutral value at the product or service category level indicates equal proportions of adults opted for a lower-priced substitute as those who chose not to purchase. Therefore, a higher substitutability index score for a product or service suggests that consumers are more inclined to trade down as consumers feel pressure to cut costs.

• Substitutability: Willingness to trade down to a cheaper substitute
• Calculation: Purchased lower priced alternative minus did not purchase

The Unavailability Index measures the difference between the share of adults who said they were unable to purchase a good or service because it was unavailable and the share who said they purchased the good or service. Positive values indicate a good or service was found to be unavailable more often than it was purchased, and negative values mean a greater share of purchases were executed successfully than the share that failed to take place due to stockouts.

• Unavailability: Inability to purchase a product or service
• Calculation: Did not purchase because product/service was unavailable minus purchased for it.

For each good or service, the index score Purchasing Difficulty Index is calculated by subtracting the share who said they shopped for a given item and did not have trouble finding it from the share who said they looked for this item and did have trouble finding it. Positive values imply the item in question was difficult to obtain more often than not, and negative values mean more consumers found it easily than struggled.

• Purchasing Difficulty: The extent to which buyers experience difficulty obtaining a product or service
• Calculation: Reported difficulty finding certain items minus did not report difficulty finding certain items

The Delivery Delays Index encompasses only goods ordered online. The index is calculated by subtracting the share of adults who ordered a product online and said it arrived faster than the previous month from the share of those who ordered the same product and said it arrived more slowly than in the previous month. A zero score indicates that equal shares reported slower and faster deliveries, while a positive score denotes a higher share of slower deliveries than faster deliveries and a negative score means more orders arrived faster than took longer to arrive.

• Delivery Delays: When buying a product, the relative timing of delivery compared to the previous month
• Calculation: Deliveries were slower than last month minus deliveries were faster than last month

Each month the economic analysis team produces a memo examining the recent trends, highlighting the notable changes among select demographics and categories as well as providing an outlook on prices, consumer demand, and supply.

Access the latest analysis on our website, subscribe to Economy and Finance content alerts  for update notifications to this tracker and our bi-weekly newsletter Economic Pulse Check for additional context for our analysis.