Geopolitical Risk: H1 2023 Macro Outlook

This memo previews the Macro Outlook section of Morning Consult’s H1 2023 Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report. Access the full report here, along with country, issue and topical forecasts.

Macro Outlook

• Public views on key geopolitical issues — including political institutions and economic stability, the business climate, economic openness, and climate change — yield a mixed global outlook for H1 2023.
• Bucking historical trends, risks are more acute in developed markets relative to emerging ones.
• Risks arising from economically motivated political unrest will persist into H2.

Present conditions

Heading into 2023, majorities across most of the G-20 support democracy, but the shares who trust their central government are almost always lower. Accordingly, we view the latter as a more likely immediate source of political instability. In parallel, economic conditions remain a key source of risk due to persistent public concerns about market stability, labor protections and job security (more so than income inequality). On average, concerns are more pronounced in developed markets relative to emerging ones (see slides 13-16 of report).

Globally, public attitudes are broadly protectionist and conducive to ongoing government efforts to raise tariffs, incentivize local manufacturing and reshore critical supply chains. ESG, by contrast, is a bright spot owing to consistently strong public support for corporate environmental stewardship and government efforts to reduce emissions.

Six-month trajectory

Although trust is trending positively in most countries, we expect a slow rebound and more persistent risk in industrialized markets (see slide 17 of report), hence our mixed overall outlook through H1. Declining support for democracy in some markets — notably Mexico and South Africa — makes backsliding a tail risk worth watching. Our outlook on economically motivated political unrest is also mixed. In most places, public views of market stability are trending positively, but at an insufficient pace to drive average sentiment into net favorable territory until at least H2 2023 (see slide 13).

In tandem, we forecast ongoing risks to global supply chains due to relatively muted six-month swings in either direction around a staunchly protectionist baseline and a sharp uptick in pro-tariff sentiment in China. As a silver lining, we expect green enthusiasm to persist over H1. Downtrends in some markets will be insufficient to drive shares below the majority mark, assuming they continue at the same pace.

About this report

Morning Consult’s biannual Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of public attitudes toward key issues at the intersection of politics and economics across 17 of the world’s largest markets. Each report includes an Executive Dashboard to guide decision-makers through issue- and country-specific risks and opportunities, along with topical outlooks that facilitate more targeted assessments.