Kathy Hochul Is Among the Most Unpopular Governors Up for Re-Election in 2026

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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s popularity has ticked up in recent months, but ahead of an expected re-election run the incumbent is among the most unpopular governors in the country, raising the specter that a rising red tide in the traditionally blue state could wipe the Democratic Party out in 2026. 

According to Morning Consult’s latest approval rankings for America’s governors, 48% of New York voters approved of her job performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, while 42% disapproved. While these approval ratings represent an improvement from the second quarter of 2024, they’re well off her numbers from the third quarter of 2022, just before she last faced voters.

Hochul, the state’s former lieutenant governor, first ascended to the governorship when Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.) resigned amid scandal in 2021 with a 38% approval rating. Her decline in popularity in recent years mirrors national trends of Democratic erosion.

Hochul’s approval rating is in the red with Republican and independent New Yorkers, but is particularly dragged down by her relative weakness with young people, voters of color and voters of her own party.

According to our latest surveys, 71% of New York Democrats approve of Hochul’s job performance, including just 28% who do so strongly. Only one Democratic governor, Gov. Dan McKee of Rhode Island, is less popular among Democratic voters, at 63%, a warning sign for her as she faces potential Democratic primary challengers including Rep. Ritchie Torres, who represents the Bronx. 

Why New York matters

Among all the governors up for re-election next year (excluding New Hampshire Republican Kelly Ayotte, who just began her first term and for whom we don’t yet have data), Hochul is the fourth-weakest in terms of net approval (the share who approve minus the share who disapprove). 

Along with McKee, Govs. Tina Kotek (D-Ore.) and Kim Reynolds (R-Iowa) hold worse approval ratings than the New York Democrat among the overall population of voters in their respective states.

But it’s the political dynamics in New York that make Hochul’s standing so striking.

In the 2022 contest, every single county moved further to the right compared with the 2020 elections, according to The New York Times, as Republicans hammered Hochul and Democrats on issues such as crime and immigration.

If New York City voters are an example, things do not appear to be getting better. Our October survey of Big Apple residents found a majority saw crime (56%) and immigration (59%) as getting worse, not to mention the nearly 2 in 3 adults there who said the same of housing affordability. 

As City & State reported, Hocuhul’s annual State of the State address “laid out a vision of affordability and safety that felt like it could be a stump speech,” attempting to address the issues that weighed on Democrats in her state and nationally since 2022.

Hochul’s nascent contest may not be the marquee incumbent battle of 2026: States such as Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are likely to fight for that distinction. But her weakened standing is likely to catch Republican eyeballs after a 2022 campaign in which the party performed better than it had in 24 years.

In a state as Democratic-leaning and diverse as New York, Hochul’s re-election — and the slate of competitive congressional races under it — may put to the test whether voters general election voters will believe a rightward-lurch on issues like immigration and crime if she survives a primary, and the lasting power of the coalitional shift among young people and voters of color that helped fuel Donald Trump’s 2024 victory.

During a midterm election year like the one Hochul’s expected to face, she may be left to rely on voters punishing the party in charge of Washington to ultimately secure another term in Albany.