Morning Consult Counter/Consensus: Global Political Risk Briefing, July 11, 2024

1. BRICS (Counter)

Another BRIC in the wall? Brazil, Russia, India and China are the original BRICs, a term coined by an economist to denote large, rapidly developing nations presenting investment opportunities. In an example of essence preceding existence, the group has since become more of an intergovernmental organization. South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates are also now members. Malaysia and Thailand, along with a number of other countries, have recently expressed an interest in joining. 

Increasingly, the media has portrayed the group as a Chinese-led, developing country counterweight to U.S. leadership in the G7 and to Western governance of the international order more broadly. However, public opinion in most of the current member states (five out of six, if we exclude China’s opinion of itself) is more favorable toward the United States than toward China. Russia is the only other BRICS member where the public prefers China. And while prospective member Malaysia is more pro-China, Thais hold positive opinions of both, but with slightly more favorable views of America on net. 

Presidents Xi and Putin may indeed be trying to leverage the BRICS as a budding hedge against the West. But contrary to the prevailing media narrative, most of the newly admitted BRICS countries where we collect data on the issue are more likely to favor the United States than the self-styled leader of the developing world, with a mixed outlook among aspirants.

All in all they’re just another…well, you know how it goes. 

2. France (Counter)

A French twist. France’s far right had a quick response to those relieved by the recent election results: “We’re not going anywhere.” Indeed, the National Rally won more parliamentary seats than any other single party, and despite being shut out of an absolute majority and the premiership, they will be making their voice heard in the Assemblée Nationale. Furthermore, the success of the far left and the shrinking political center presage intense political battles. 

But not over everything. Our monthly data on French adults’ policy preferences shows that there is widespread agreement across the republic’s political spectrum on principles related to equality, workers’ rights, and the state’s role in the economy. There is, however, sharp disagreement on cultural pluralism and immigration, in line with deepening debates about the role of “le wokisme” in French society and political discourse. 

The Paris Olympics — taking place in less than three weeks — will be the government’s most immediate challenge. But whoever takes over the French premiership will have to address the issues that drove millions of voters to support the far right, including concerns over the cost of living, discontent by France’s farmers, anger over pension reform, and of course, immigration policy, even as other areas show a higher degree of left-right alignment. It won’t be smooth sailing. 

3. NATO/Ukraine (Counter)

Birthday party pooper. As NATO celebrates its 75th birthday at the summit in Washington, D.C. this week, there are two elephants in the room: The lingering question mark over Ukraine’s evential membership and a possible second term for former President Donald Trump, famously a NATO skeptic. 

Public sympathies lie with Ukraine, but opinions on membership are uncertain. In general, adults in six member countries where we surveyed the public on Ukrainian NATO membership are more likely than not to support it. Adults in the United Kingdom were the most unsure about offering Ukraine membership by a wide margin, with 49% saying they didn’t know or had no opinion on the matter. Germans expressed the most hesitation, with 1 in 5 strongly opposing it.

Across the Atlantic, the majority of U.S. adults, including a slim majority of Republicans, similarly say they would support admitting Ukraine to NATO, this despite former President Trump’s vocal criticism of it.

While recent history indicates that Republican views would likely shift somewhat to come in line with Trump’s rhetoric if push came to shove, our data suggests there is currently a gap between Trump’s views of NATO and those of his constituents that is worth monitoring, though Democrats are ultimately NATO’s biggest cheerleaders.

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