Weighing the Political Impact of Donald Trump’s Indictments and Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal
Key Takeaways
Nearly half of Republican voters (46%) said Congress should make it a “top priority” to investigate Hunter Biden’s finances, compared with about a third who said it should focus on probing the motivations behind the DOJ’s investigation into former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents.
For House Republicans pondering how to use their investigative power, this is a sign that a focus on President Joe Biden’s son could yield more political dividends than focusing on the DOJ’s handling of Trump’s legal woes.
Republican voters are 10 percentage points more likely to say the Justice Department’s investigations into Trump are motivated by politics than to disapprove of the federal charges against the former president, suggesting peril for GOP presidential candidates hoping to raise the issue against him.
Independent voters who have helped fuel Trump’s general election advantages over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, are more likely to side with the grand jury against Trump’s attacks on the Justice Department, posing some peril for candidates looking ahead to the general election.
The overall electorate is most likely to say that fentanyl trafficking and operations at the U.S.-Mexico border should be prioritized for investigations. Our data sees those issues as potential pain points for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign if Republicans manage to capitalize on them.
Sign up to get the latest data and analysis on how business, politics and economics intersect around the world.
As House Republicans grapple with how to leverage their investigative powers to take on the Justice Department, our data shows there is more political energy on the right to probe the dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, than to examine the DOJ’s motivations for investigating former President Donald Trump. At the same time, our data finds near unanimity among Republican voters nationwide that Trump’s indictment over his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House was politically motivated.
Our view is that this leaves the GOP front-runner on solid ground to continue his attacks on the special counsel amid the primary, but it suggests risks for other GOP primary candidates who move to raise the issue against him. Meanwhile, views among independent voters highlight potential risks for those looking ahead to 2024.
General election watchers should also note that the average U.S. voter cares more about examining fentanyl trafficking and the Biden administration’s operations on the U.S.-Mexico border than either of the House’s DOJ investigations, suggesting that Capitol Hill’s focus on the political probes could be viewed as a distraction from the more pressing concerns of the wider electorate.
How Capitol Hill should consider the Trump, Biden legal scrutiny
Nearly half of Republican voters (46%) said Congress should make it a “top priority” to investigate Hunter Biden’s finances, compared with nearly a third who said it should focus on the motivations behind the DOJ’s classified documents probe or the special counsel’s ongoing scrutiny of Trump’s behavior following the 2020 presidential election.
GOP Voters Would Rather See Congress Probe Into Hunter Biden Than Into the DOJ’s Trump Investigations
That puts House Republicans in line with much of their base on using their investigative powers to spotlight the first son, who was the subject of salacious revelations about his own personal life and politically uncomfortable questions about his business dealings even before his deal with the Justice Department. Voters’ interest in the issue has dropped since November, when 52% of Republicans said a Hunter Biden probe should be a top priority, suggesting interest in the issue may be waning on the right even if the share expressing heightened curiosity remains noteworthy.
Among the larger electorate, just over a quarter of voters said Congress should prioritize a Hunter Biden investigation, roughly matching the share who said the same seven months ago. That figure is slightly lower than the shares who want Congress to focus on the Justice Department’s Trump investigations.
A Majority of Voters Want Congress to Make Fentanyl Trafficking a Top Investigative Priority
Rather than investigations involving the two presidential front-runners, or any of the other hot-button subjects tested, our data shows Republicans would be on more popular turf if they were to focus their attention on elevating immigration, an issue on which their members of Congress have a 46% to 38% trust advantage over Democrats and Biden gets his highest disapproval rating (51%).
Regarding border-related issues, nearly 3 in 5 voters want to see heavy attention paid to fentanyl trafficking into the United States, and just under half would prioritize a probe into operations at the U.S.-Mexico border. Both issues have been the subject of lesser-noticed hearings this year but have not gotten nearly the attention paid to the House’s rumblings concerning political probes.
Many voters question the DOJ’s Trump motivations
The criminal scrutiny of Trump and Hunter Biden does not appear to have done much to shape the contours of the 2024 race. Trump still holds a major lead over other Republican candidates, and it has only widened since he was first indicted in New York this spring.
Looking ahead to the escalating GOP campaign, as the classified documents trial advances and prosecutors make a decision on the 2020 election interference probe, our data shows the Republican front-runner isn’t in unpopular territory with his claims that the Biden Justice Department is out to get him.
Half of Voters Approve of Trump’s Indictment on Mishandling Classified Documents
Voters are 13 percentage points more likely to approve than disapprove of a federal grand jury bringing charges related to Trump’s handling of classified documents. But when asked what they thought primarily caused the charges, they were only 4 points more likely to say it was due to evidence that he committed a crime than to interest in damaging his political career.
That gap is driven largely by Republican voters, who are 10 points more likely to say the Justice Department is motivated by politics than they are to disapprove of the charges — siding with Trump’s argument of a “rigged” system without fully shunning its conclusion.
Specific demographics at scale: Surveying thousands of consumers around the world every day powers our ability to examine and analyze perceptions and habits of more specific demographics at scale, like those featured here.
Why it matters: Leaders need a better understanding of their audiences when making key decisions. Our comprehensive approach to understanding audience profiles complements the “who” of demographics and the “what” of behavioral data with critical insights and analysis on the “why.”
The tensions facing Trump’s fellow candidates for the GOP nomination are clear. On the one hand, they will make up little ground in distancing the party from Trump’s claims of political persecution, as evidenced by the GOP electorate’s souring on contenders such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in recent weeks.
On the other, pushing back more aggressively against the DOJ could pose risks for the GOP when looking ahead to the general election, and not just by alienating Democratic voters. Independent voters — who have helped fuel Trump’s general election advantages over his closest Republican challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, when comparing their head-to-head standings against Biden — are more likely to side with the grand jury and against the president’s posture toward the Justice Department. This problem could be exacerbated as the documents-related trial starts to unfold and if other charges emerge against Trump.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].