Tracking Sentiment in Russia After Wagner Group’s March on Moscow
Key Takeaways
The overwhelming majority of Russians continue to say their country is headed in the right direction after this past weekend’s possible coup attempt.
This most likely reflects a “wait and see” attitude among the public as official state narratives take shape in the aftermath of the Wagner Group’s march on Moscow.
These events reinforce that battlefield losses are a source of political instability. But thus far, the effect is visible more through elite power jockeying than through shifts in public opinion.
We advise watching volatility in the data series as an early indicator of shifting public views and growing uncertainty.
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This past weekend’s events in Russia have been described alternately as a coup attempt, a military revolt, or the beginning of a civil war. But the overwhelming majority of Russians continue to say their country is headed in the right direction despite Wagner paramilitary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow. Sentiment has held steady since the onset of the war in Ukraine in late February 2022, which drove a marked uptick in public optimism surrounding Russia’s trajectory.
Russians’ Views of Their Country’s Trajectory Hold Steady Despite Wagner Group March on Moscow
There are several explanations for the trend’s relative stability. Given the recency of developments, sentiment may simply be trending sideways as the public assesses the situation and more information becomes available. Reported barriers to international media access will also likely extend the timeframe over which shifts in Russian sentiment manifest in our data, barring further public statements by President Vladimir Putin surrounding recent developments and the solidification of official state narratives. Longer-term political dynamics that predate the current crisis — specifically unified domestic media support for the war, opposition flight from Russia since February 2022 and elevated risk of preference falsification among those who remain (due to fear of political persecution and laws prohibiting criticism of the armed forces and its actions abroad) — are also potential contributing factors.
We survey worldwide: Global data used in this analysis is available exclusively in Morning Consult Intelligence, an online platform tracking consumer attitudes daily on key indicators in 40+ markets. This survey asks respondents about their demographics, political beliefs, economic sentiment, brand perceptions and more.
Why our data is strong: What you’re reading reflects daily global tracking in Russia, a data set unique to Morning Consult. No other company surveys daily at this scale in as many markets as Morning Consult does.
Our previous assessment of this trend — in February 2023 — was that it reflects a durable rally around the flag effect, interrupted slightly by partial mobilization in fall 2022. Our assessment also predicted that additional military failures, especially those resulting in further troop mobilization, were the biggest risk to Russian pro-war solidarity, especially if coupled with biting sanctions. Recent events reinforce that battlefield losses are a source of potential political instability. But thus far, the effect appears to be more visible through elite power jockeying than through shifts in public opinion. Given ongoing uncertainties, we advise caution when parsing trends in Russian data as events unfold, but nevertheless view volatility in this data series as a bellwether of shifting public views and rising uncertainty.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
