Trump’s Proposed 25% Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Divide Voters

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President Donald Trump’s plan to stick it to China with tariffs on all U.S. imports as soon as this week is popular with voters, but his plans for even tougher economic punishment on America’s closest neighbors are divisive.

According to Morning Consult’s latest survey, a slim majority of voters support Trump’s threatened 10% tariffs on imported goods from China, while the electorate is split evenly on expected 25% levies on products brought into the United States from Canada and Mexico.

As Trump administration officials continue to signal that the president will move forward with these levies as soon as Saturday despite speculation that he will back off of his threats in exchange for concessions — particularly with regard to Canada and Mexico — he’s facing little resistance from his Republican base.

Still, the planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico are especially unpopular among Democrats and independents, and both taxes prove more divisive among lower-earning households that could feel any retaliatory pain more acutely when compared to their higher-earning peers in the electorate.

Even as more voters than not express support for duties on China, Trump’s focus on the tariffs — which he has called “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” — is out of sync with voters’ preferences.

According to our new survey, less than 1 in 4 voters think imposing tariffs on imported goods should be a “top priority” for his administration, compared with far more who elevate cutting health care costs (73%) or the price of goods and services (79%), a focal point of voters’ self-expressed 2024 ire.

In fact, tariff policy produces one of the largest disconnects between the electorate and the Trump administration: While 23% say imposing these import taxes should be a top priority, twice as many (47%) perceive it to be at the top of the list for Trump. That gap persists among Republican voters, who are 15 points more likely to see Trump making the imposition of tariffs a “top priority” than to say it should be (51% to 36%).

The bottom line

As we’ve noted in our new tracker of public opinion on Trump’s Washington, Trump has begun his second term on better footing than he did the last time around, boosted by at least some good graces from Democrats and independent voters. And, Trump and Republicans in Congress are more trusted to handle trade and the economy. 

But this data also underlines a threat to their grip on power in Washington. Already, many voters don’t believe the Trump administration shares their priorities. And if the GOP’s heavy focus on immigration enforcement and tariffs results, as expected, in higher costs on consumer goods, it looks like any backlash will head right in their direction. 

While Republican voters may say they are willing to deal with the domestic costs of tariffs, the broader electorate is already telling a different story, suggesting Trump may not have a long runway for trying out his macroeconomic theories if he, or his party, want to maintain their trust advantages on these issues into the next two election cycles.