Economics
Global Consumer Confidence Report: March 2023
Report summary
Early momentum in global consumer confidence in 2023 continued into February. While the number of countries that saw gains slowed from 31 in January to 21 in February, the index saw sizable increases in some of the world’s largest economies. The United States joined China and many European economies in recording an increase in February, helping to lift Morning Consult’s GDP-weighted measure of global sentiment. While cooling inflation has helped buoy consumers’ optimism, especially in Europe, the battle against global inflation remains far from won. Central banks have tightened monetary policy at a rapid clip in much of the world, and that will ultimately take its toll on demand in 2023. Additionally, rapid changes in financial conditions have exposed the challenges of aggressively fighting inflation while maintaining financial stability, with several bank failures in the United States in March adding to recession fears.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence rose in February in 21 of the 43 countries tracked by Morning Consult, with an average monthly change of 0.2% in the ICS across all countries.
- Chile saw the greatest increase in consumer sentiment from January to February across the 43 countries tracked. The Morning Consult Chile Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 7.1% month over month as inflation slows and economic activity improves in services and mining.
- The largest decline in sentiment came in Pakistan, where consumer confidence fell 5.7 points, or 6.0%, from January to February. With much of the country still feeling the impact of catastrophic flooding last year, Pakistan’s finances are in crisis. Policymakers are working with the International Monetary Fund and have recently raised taxes and increased interest rates to the highest level in around 25 years.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Follow him on Twitter @JohnCLeer. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.
Akber Khan is an economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where he supports the research efforts of the Economic Intelligence team by applying a combination of data science, data engineering and econometric forecasting methods to deliver insights into global macroeconomic trends. Previously, he worked for the Federal Reserve Board as a financial analyst, covering issues such as banking and finance, short-term funding markets, and monetary policy. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Bentley University.
Follow him on Twitter @AKhanMC. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
