Global Politics
Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook H1 2023 Report: Threat Perceptions Spotlight
Report summary
Morning Consult’s Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook Report provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of public attitudes toward key issues at the intersection of politics and economics across 18 of the world’s largest markets. This companion spotlight, focused on global threat perceptions, provides insight into public views on the relative risks posed by major domestic and cross-border threats, including prevailing global economic conditions, cross-country conflict, ethno-religious tensions, COVID-19 and climate change.
Key Takeaways
- Global Economic Conditions: Across the G-20, the average share of adults who view global economic conditions as a ‘major threat’ decreased slightly over 2H 2022 but still represent a plurality
- Cross-Country Conflict: The average share of adults concerned about cross-country conflict decreased slightly over H2 2022 but remains elevated relative to the period preceding the war in Ukraine
- Ethno-Religious Tensions: Pluralities of adults in around half of G-20 countries continue to view ethno-religious tensions as a ‘major threat,’ with pronounced concerns observed in France, Germany, India and Turkey
- COVID-19: On average, public concern about COVID-19 decreased markedly over 2022. China’s recent outbreak has caused global concern to rebound, but most country trends are favorable
- Climate Change: On average, public concern about COVID-19 decreased markedly over 2022. China’s recent outbreak has caused global concern to rebound, but most country trends are favorable
Methodology
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Data comes from monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 adults per country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points. Our January 2022 survey in Turkey was conducted among 3,111 respondents, with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. All interviews are conducted online. Surveys field during the second half of the indicated month.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter @ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
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