October 2023 U.S. Political Trends in 10+ Charts

This Chart Pack showcases Morning Consult’s exclusive data on the 2024 elections and key political issues.

Chart Pack highlights:

• President Joe Biden and GOP front-runner Donald Trump are locked in a tight race, and there are worrying signs for the incumbent in several swing states. Biden is trailing Trump in five of seven key battlegrounds we surveyed in October. There’s a 14-point deficit between Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 and who plan to vote for him next year, compared with a 9-point attrition rate among Trump’s 2020 supporters.
• Vulnerable Democratic senators remain above water in states where Biden is performing poorly. Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio in particular are outperforming Biden among voters in their states.
• Republican voters are split on whether the next House speaker should compromise to keep the government running or stick to the party’s principles even if it means a shutdown. Democrats were also more likely than Republicans to approve of Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as House speaker.
• Voters have grown more sympathetic toward Israel following Hamas’ terrorist attacks. Two in 5 U.S. voters sympathize more with the Israelis than the Palestinians in the long-running conflict, up from 28% who said the same in May 2021.