How Morning Consult Intelligence Data Forecasts Earnings

To ensure our data is aligned to real-world outcomes, Morning Consult partners with Maiden Century to analyze the correlation between our Morning Consult Intelligence data, which tracks daily consumer sentiment for more than 2,000 brands in 40+ countries,  and quarterly KPIs (e.g., revenue, users) from publicly-traded companies. 

As part of this partnership, Maiden Century leveraged Morning Consult’s survey data to build  models that can be used to predict company KPIs each quarter and rank the accuracy of said models compared to dozens of alternative data sources. 

As a result, Morning Consult’s Intelligence data revealed strong correlations with key business metrics, ranking first (lowest mean absolute percentage error - MAPE) among all alternative data sets on the Maiden Century platform for 133 KPIs tied to 96 publicly-traded companies.

Netflix Sees Boost in APAC Subscribers

Market data: In its Q1 earnings, Netflix announced they will stop reporting on quarterly membership numbers starting in 2025. In one of the last quarters where membership numbers are provided, Netflixy shared total membership grew 16% in Q1, exceeding analysts estimates, buoyed by especially strong growth in Asia-Pacific where they added over 2 million new subscribers. 

Morning Consult Intelligence data: Starting in January 2024 through Q1, Morning Consult’s data revealed an uptick in Netflix purchasing consideration in two of its biggest APAC markets: Japan and Australia. While Netflix saw purchasing intention rise across the board in these countries, much of the increase in each country could be attributed to a notable spike in interest from the male population. 

This growth in purchasing consideration led to a forecast of 47.8 million paid subscribers in APAC (+21% YoY), only 300,000 off from the actual reported number of 47.5 million (+20% YoY). Following Q1, Morning Consult’s data ranked first out of 12 data providers tracking Netflix in APAC.

Takeaway: Analyzing survey data at the country level is critical when it comes to large multinational companies like Netflix. While Netflix’s metrics were fairly flat in many markets over this period, country-level analysis in Japan and Australia uncovered these areas of high growth.

Suntory Reports Strong Q1 Growth in U.S.

Market data: Suntory had a strong Q1 2024 highlighted by a 22% year-over-year growth in the U.S. (its highest growth market in the world). The market immediately reacted to Suntory’s strong quarter, resulting in a 7% increase in stock price when markets opened. 

Morning Consult Intelligence data: Well in advance of Suntory’s May 2024 earnings announcement, Morning Consult detected a substantial uptick in several of our brand tracking metrics for two of Suntory’s flagship brands in the U.S.: Maker’s Mark and Jim Beam. Both brands saw boosts in value (+5%), purchasing consideration (+12%), and usage (+11%)  from the prior year.  

The Maiden Century forecast for Suntory’s Q1 U.S. revenue using Morning Consult data came in at $259 billion (+21% YoY), a mere $1 billion away from the reported number of $260 billion (+22% YoY). With a MAPE of .8% over the past four quarters in predicting Suntory’s U.S. revenue, Morning Consult ranks first of 8 data providers tracking the metric.

Takeaway:  Multiple brand metrics showing similar movement can validate emerging trendsThese types of instances where brands experience increases in metrics across the customer lifecycle can serve as the strongest indicators of future revenue growth.  

Walmart Beats Q1 Expectations Via Urban Shoppers

Market data: Walmart beat analysts expectations for a number of metrics in Q1 2024, boosted by strong U.S. revenue numbers. In particular, Walmart benefited from strong YoY growth in its e-commerce and Sam’s Club lines. These results drove an immediate 6% jump in WMT stock following the earnings announcement.

Morning Consult Intelligence data: : Prior to Walmart’s May 2024 earnings announcement, Morning Consult’s data was showing an uptick in key metrics for these business lines. From Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, Sam’s Club and Walmart+ (Walmart’s membership service with perks for e-commerce shoppers) saw notable increases in purchasing consideration in the U.S. with an especially sizable jump among urban residents. 

As a result of these early indicators, the Maiden Century forecast for Walmart’s U.S. revenue based on Morning Consult data was $132 billion compared to the actual reported number of $130 billion. This close prediction ranked Morning Consult’s data fourth out of 45 data sets covering Walmart’s US revenue over the past four quarters.

Takeaway: For  household names like Walmart, brand metrics tied to the parent brand move very slowly (if at all), but metrics at the sub-brand and product level can provide valuable signals into underlying trends. 

Conclusion

The partnership between Morning Consult and Maiden Century enhances the use of consumer sentiment data to predict business outcomes. By analyzing the relationship between Morning Consult's data and key performance indicators (KPIs) like revenue and user growth from public companies, this collaboration offers deeper strategic insights. It helps businesses and investors better understand how consumer attitudes affect financial performance, leading to more informed decision-making and improving the predictive accuracy of real-time sentiment data.

About Maiden Century’s Analysis

Maiden Century leverages Morning Consult’s daily brand tracking data (specifically our Purchasing Consideration, Favorability, and NPS metrics) tied to publicly traded companies (both parent and subsidiary brands) to develop quarterly models that have the closest fit to actual KPI results over the past four quarters. This process uses a variety of modeling methods and weighting schemes to determine the model that has been the most accurate over that time period. This process is replicated across all alternative data sources that are active in the Maiden Century platform for the tickers and KPIs covered by each respective data set which is how we are able to see apples-to-apples comparisons across data providers.