APAC: Leader Approval & Country Trajectory Outlook, October 2023

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Australia Outlook

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating is at an all-time low following the Oct. 14 failure of his signature campaign promise, known as the “Indigenous Voice to Parliament.” The measure, which would have constitutionally recognized Australia’s indigenous people for the first time by establishing a non-voting advisory committee of indigenous representatives, passed both houses of Parliament but was soundly rejected by Australian voters in a national referendum. Australia’s net country trajectory fell into negative territory for the first time during the closing stages of the bruising campaign, which left the country deeply divided. 

Although Albanese’s net approval remained positive as of Oct. 15, it has continued to fall in the wake of the vote, while Australia remains more divided than at any time in recent history. Perceptions of the country’s trajectory have fallen starkly as well, dropping especially following the vote.

The loss leaves Albanese's governing mandate severely curtailed, which will hamper his left-leaning Australian Labor Party’s political agenda. However, without an election scheduled until 2025, they have time to recover. A diminished Albanese will likely focus on pocketbook issues going forward, as accusations that he was too focused on cultural issues while Australia was struggling with its highest level of inflation in over three decades may have soured voters on his signature initiative. Disinformation likely played a part as well, with troll accounts —  including some allegedly linked to China —  amplifying racially divisive messaging. A divided and politically hobbled Australia serves China’s geopolitical interests, and this will come as a blow to the United States and its other allies in the region. 

China outlook

While China’s 82-percentage-point net country trajectory on Oct. 15 may seem high, it actually matches a series low reached late last year as frustration over the country’s draconian approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic spiraled into shocking nationwide protests against the Chinese government more broadly, by far the largest in scope since 1989. This recent nadir follows a steep 9-point decline over the past month, as economic difficulties continue to mount and government intervention seems to be doing little to jumpstart China’s stalled post-reopening economic recovery amid ongoing concerns in its housing market. 

While growing dissatisfaction will be worrying for Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party, it is unlikely that this metric predicts a renewed wave of protests. Last year’s so-called “blank paper protests” — named for participants’ use of blank pages to signal their frustration over issues that remain verboten in China’s heavily censored and controlled civil society — were largely driven and organized by, if not limited to, young adults in major cities. During the height of the protest movement, net satisfaction among China’s youngest adults fell as low as 71%. Current levels of public dissatisfaction over the economy have been broader but less intense: Despite an employment crisis for young adults, dissatisfaction among Gen Z adults was sitting at 84% as of Oct. 15, slightly higher than that of adults overall. Both measures have flirted with the 80% mark since, however. We advise watching this metric as a signal of whether public views of China’s overall trajectory are poised for a rebound or further erosion. Xi’s firm grasp on Chinese political life, meanwhile, makes any sort of internal challenge to his rule unlikely, though further erosion of public support could hamper his long-term vision for fundamentally reordering China’s social and political priorities.

Japan outlook

Earlier this year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s political future seemed deeply uncertain. 

In the wake of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination, a scandal involving links between senior Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers and the controversial Unification Church saw Kishida’s approval rating fall to historic lows, rivaling the nadirs of his two predecessors, who both resigned. Four-decade high inflation compounded Kishidia’s troubles as his net approval reached a low of minus 48 points in early February and remained dismal for several months thereafter. In April however, Kishida’s political fortunes appeared to reverse course as he gained plaudits for his deft handling of international affairs, with net approval rising more than 34 points to a recent high (albeit a negative one) in late May after Japan hosted the G7.

The recovery would prove short-lived: As of Oct. 15, his net approval rating had fallen 17 points in six months, and 30 points from its May apotheosis. Among other factors, we attribute the decline to the government’s early June move to eliminate health insurance cards and link Japan’s popular nationalized insurance coverage to an unpopular government ID card system known as “My Number.” An interim report found the rollout was widely botched, with thousands of registration errors and other administrative issues. 

Recent moves to strip the Unification Church of its religious incorporation status and pass an economic stimulus have proved popular, but Kishida’s net approval rating — which fell 7 points in the last month — does not appear to have benefited. While economic headwinds have undoubtedly hurt Kishida, an 8-point differential between our country trajectory and leader approval metrics speaks to the degree to which the Japanese public has lost faith in Kishida and his long-ruling LDP’s ability to govern, rather than his recent decline being purely attributable to macro factors. While Kishida’s release of a stimulus plan in September has renewed speculation he is laying the groundwork for a snap election before the year’s end — once widely anticipated as his popularity surged in May — our view is that his currently flagging approval ratings make this increasingly unlikely.

Philippines outlook

The Philippines' net country trajectory has declined 22 points in the last six months. We partially attribute this trend to growing public fears over a potential confrontation with China surrounding disputed territorial claims. China watchers will note that the steepest drop off occurred in August following an incident in which a flotilla of Chinese coast guard and militia ships blockaded a pair of Philippine vessels that were attempting to resupply troops stationed at the otherwise uninhabited Second Thomas Shoal, spraying one with a high-powered water cannon. Second Thomas Shoal is claimed by several nations but lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone; China has been especially aggressive in contesting these claims.  

The incident touched a nerve in the Philippines, leading President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr. to issue a sweeping rethink of his country’s national security strategy to refocus on naval sovereignty shortly after Manila summoned the Chinese ambassador. The move has drawn the Philippines closer to the United States but increased the likelihood of a confrontation with China, which has pursued increasingly aggressive naval actions in attempts to force the Philippines out of the area.  Public sentiment has remained relatively volatile since the first incident — as seen in moderate and persistent see-sawing in our own data in recent months — suggesting the public is divided on the best path forward.

While we do not anticipate a return to former President Rodrigo Duterte’s on-again off-again antics surrounding the Visiting Forces Agreement under Marcos, the latter’s net approval rating has declined 13 points in the last six months, placing him in weaker territory than the ever-popular Duterte. Should this trend persist, we could see more limited near-term pushback against China to the detriment of Marcos’ Western partners and allies. However, the Philippines long-term ties to the United States, which has been adamant in its support during recent confrontations with China, are unlikely to suffer.

Methodology

Morning Consult conducts thousands of daily interviews on key political issues across 43 countries, making our unified data set on political attitudes — Morning Consult Political Intelligence — the largest globally. Every day, we gauge public opinion on world leaders, international organizations, policy issues and other countries to provide customers with data at the scale and speed needed to navigate the changing global political landscape in real time. Daily historical data is available for up to 6 years. For more information on average daily sample sizes, target populations, and more, see our MCPI methodology primer here.