EMEA: Leader Approval & Country Trajectory Outlook, May 2024

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Netherlands 

The Dutch public’s seven-month wait for a new government after last November’s parliamentary elections is finally over. In March, a key stumbling block was removed when firebrand Geert Wilders withdrew his bid for the premiership. Since then, Wilders’ PVV, Rutte’s center-right VVD, the New Social Contract party and the Farmer-Citizen Movement have been negotiating to form a cabinet, releasing a coalition agreement on May 17 involving much tighter restrictions on immigration, including asylum. 

Dutch adults have not been optimistic up until this point on the trajectory of the process. On the one hand, their views of lame duck Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, sharply rebounded in recent months after his party entered negotiations on joining a coalition to include the clear election winner, the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV). On the other hand, Dutch views of the country’s trajectory, which usually trend similarly to leader approval, remain flat and very negative. Elections usually result in a notable shift in this metric as people expect impending positive change, but Dutch adults have remained sanguine. 

Stakeholders should closely follow views on the country’s trajectory in the coming weeks for signals on whether the just-released coalition agreement is playing well with the electorate. Given that the stability of such an “extra-parliamentary” government is in question, we have to agree with Dutch adults’ reluctance thus far to lend the process their general optimism.  

Poland

If you look only at Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s approval rating since taking the reins of the Polish government in January, we see a very mild slide from a post-election high in modestly positive territory. However, when we widen the lens to look at the entire time series for Polish adult’s views on whether their country is headed in the right direction, a different perspective emerges. 

Optimism is still running high after years deeply in the red, with Poles’ net outlook on their country’s trajectory jumping close to 50 percentage points after Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) and its allies won a victory in the October 2023 elections, and it remains well above levels we observed prior to that period.

But with great optimism comes great expectations. Tusk promised to rapidly improve relations with the European Union, as well as to quickly reverse the previous administration’s policies viewed as most objectionable by KO (and by the European Union) including a controversial judicial overhaul, stacking public media with government mouthpieces, and ensuring access to abortion. 

On relations with the European Union, Tusk has clearly delivered. On the other items, progress has been slowed by opposition both within and outside the coalition. April’s local elections, which failed to hand KO its sought for mandate, have further complicated the coalition’s task. According to our companion data assets on political polarization, Poland is highly politically polarized. We predict that this dynamic will continue to hinder Tusk’s ability to deliver on his promises, creating political gridlock on key issues and eroding his support in the coming months.

United Kingdom

Since we last checked in on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in October, things have not gone his way. At the time, we predicted Sunak would not call elections any time soon given his underwater approval rating and the overall dour public attitude. Elections must take place by January 2025, but Sunak can call them earlier if he sees an advantage in doing so for his Conservative Party. 

Since then, Sunak’s approval rating has continued to slide, currently sitting just below -40 net points. In a dubious silver lining, U.K. adults’ views of the country’s trajectory, while gloomy, have not gotten worse. They remain around -53 points. As such, we think Sunak will continue to put off the election into the second half of the year, despite speculation that he could call them for the summer.  

Our perspective is that Sunak will delay a bit longer in the hopes that inflation moderates further and public opinion improves, a perspective echoed by David Cameron in a recent statement. We advise clients to continue monitoring these metrics as indicators of when Sunak and the Tories might see a favorable window to hold elections, but summer seems unlikely.

Methodology

Every day, Morning Consult surveys thousands of respondents across 43 countries to assess public views of incumbent political leaders, country trajectories, and attitudes toward other countries and international organizations. Our Political Intelligence solution — encompassing 6+ years of trended data across dozens of markets and hundreds of demographics — provides clients across the public and private sectors with data at the scale and speed needed to navigate the changing political and geopolitical landscape in real-time. For detailed information on average daily sample sizes, target populations and more, consult our companion methodology primer here.