Morning Consult’s Global Political Risk Ratings See Upside Potential For Israel, Downside Risk for France and the U.K.

NEW YORK — November 13, 2024 — The November 2024 release of Morning Consult’s Global Political Risk Ratings — high-frequency ratings for 36 markets derived from Morning Consult Intelligence data — sees upside potential for Israel and downside risk for France and the United Kingdom amid a complex electoral and policy landscape.

“Downgrades for France and the United Kingdom, and upcoming elections in Germany, will increase the risk of European political instability at a time when the incoming Trump administration is poised to once again challenge the status quo in trans-Atlantic relations,” notes Jason McMann, Morning Consult’s Head of Political Intelligence.“Companies and investors riding the storm should plan for a renewed emphasis on transactional policymaking, including with traditional allies in the areas of trade and defense.” 

Key takeaways: 

• Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to stay in office and improve his image among the Israeli electorate, driving a rating upgrade from B to BB-. We expect the outcome of the 2024 U.S. elections to play to the upside for Israel in the coming months.
• France: Morning Consult has downgraded France’s rating from B- to CCC+, reflecting ongoing fallout from a fraught government formation process. We hold a decidedly negative near-term outlook on the country’s risk trajectory owing to fractious legislative dynamics that lie in wait for newly incumbent Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
• United Kingdom: Morning Consult has downgraded the United Kingdom’s rating from BB- to B+. Ongoing budgetary and policymaking challenges — particularly those surrounding migration and public services — will continue to play to the downside for incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

See below for Morning Consult’s latest ratings across all 36 markets. The latest ratings reflect data collected through October 31, 2024 and are updated on a monthly cadence, with higher frequency daily ratings data available for enterprise use.

If you would like a free, complimentary media account to Morning Consult Pro to access our Global Political Risk Ratings, contact us at [email protected].

Methodology: Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings are constructed using standardized, survey-derived risk metrics. All survey data used to produce the ratings was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All survey interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. Weighting parameters and target populations vary by country.

Consult our Risk Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional details.

Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for supplementary details on the underlying survey data, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.

Requested Citation: Please credit Morning Consult in any coverage and link back here.  

# # #

About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at pro.morningconsult.com. 

Contact: Anna Rose Pardue, [email protected]