Morning Consult Political Risk Ratings

Morning Consult's Global Political Risk Ratings provide high-frequency, survey-derived risk ratings for 36 global markets on a monthly basis. Risk ratings are narrowly defined to reflect the degree of public support for incumbent governments, and are intended to facilitate corporate scenario planning efforts, portfolio allocation and rebalancing, and investment decision-making, including by serving as political inputs into sovereign credit ratings models.

Updated risk ratings and the corresponding data used to produce them publish during the first half of each month, along with companion market commentary covering risk ratings, ratings action (upgrades and downgrades), ratings watches, and related confidence metrics. 

See below for the latest ratings, ratings action and watches, and risk profiles by market group. The latest edition of our Market Commentary & Risk Outlook (MACRO) Political Briefing, six months of prior briefings, machine-readable ratings data, and a companion Ratings Definitions & Methodology Primer and publication calendar can be accessed via Data Downloads below. See here for a companion research note outlining private and public sector use cases and the comparative advantages afforded by our ratings.

Higher-frequency daily risk data beyond that presented here is available for commercial use via Morning Consult Intelligence, including via API. Please contact us for details.

Rating Action:

• Upgrades: Israel (from B to BB-), Japan (from B+ to BB-; evaluation period largely predates the Oct. 27 elections), Pakistan (from B+ to BB-), Thailand (from BB+ to BBB-)
• Downgrades: Chile (from BB- to B+), France (from B- to CCC+), Philippines (from BBB- to BB+), United Kingdom (from BB- to B+)

Rating Watches:

• Upside: Argentina (from BBB to BBB+), Belgium (from BB- to BB), Indonesia (from A- to A), Mexico (from BBB to BBB+)
• Downside: Netherlands (from BB+ to BB)

Macro Political Outlook:

• Global average risk continues to trend sideways over 2024/YTD, but notched a slight uptick in October across both core and extended market groups. Emerging markets meanwhile exhibit a more favorable risk profile than their developed counterparts, a trend which has become highly persistent.
• Downgrades for France and the United Kingdom continue to weigh on Europe's risk profile and are similarly pinning down average G7 risk, with both countries comprising the two lowest rated markets among that group.
• In Asia, Pakistan's rating upgrade offers a counter-consensus assessment of recent narratives linked to the worsening impact of the ongoing IMF agreement and former Prime Minister Imran Khan's imprisonment on the country's political stability. Positive momentum in Indonesia (upside watch) and Thailand (upgrade), and negative momentum in the Philippines (downgrade) is in line with expectations.
• In the Americas, positive movement in Argentina and Mexico (upside watches for each) suggests controversial economic and judicial reforms (respectively) have staying power, though we continue to advise monitoring rising risk of popular discontents at the margins in Argentina.

See the latest MACRO (Market Commentary & Risk Outlook) Political Briefing under "Data Downloads" above for our assessment of ratings drivers, forward outlooks, and scenarios and sensitivities for key markets.

The table below provides risk ratings and m/m risk trajectories for all rated markets, alongside indications of ratings actions and watches through the latest available complete month of data.

Morning Consult has tracked political risk continuously in a set of 10 “core” rated markets since January 1, 2019, and in a broader set of 36 “extended” rated markets since January 1, 2022 (including those in the core set). See the table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figures report average risk readings across both groups of markets.

Regional risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Regional average data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by region.

Emerging/frontier and developed market risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Average data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by market group.

G7 & G20 risk profiles reflect simple averages of risk readings in our “extended” set of rated markets. Average G7 data is available from June 1, 2020 onwards. Average G20 data is available from January 1, 2022 onwards. Data availability for some markets extends beyond the stipulated window. See table below for a complete list of rated markets in each group. The subsequent figure reports simple average risk readings by market group.

The following table provides a list of all rated markets covered by Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings, sorted by market group.

• Trended Risk Ratings and Readings Data: All data featured in this tracker is available for Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page. See “Commercial Data Access” below for additional details on access to higher frequency risk ratings and readings data beyond that presented in this tracker.
• MACRO (Market Commentary & Risk Outlook) Political Briefing: Morning Consult's MACRO Political Briefing provides analytical commentary and forward risk outlooks for rated markets subject to ratings action, and select commentary for those subject to ratings watches. The MACRO Political Briefing publishes monthly, and serves as Morning Consult's flagship recurring analysis of political risk globally. The latest release can be downloaded via the "Data Downloads" section of this page.
• Chart Pack: A companion monthly chart pack showing trended risk ratings and readings for all markets featured in this tracker is available for Morning Consult Pro subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page.
• Counter/Consensus Email Briefing: Morning Consult Counter/Consensus is a biweekly, publicly available briefing that provides pithy, empirically-grounded forecasts derived from our political data assets, and periodically leverages data from Morning Consult's Political Risk Ratings.

All data used to produce Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings derives from Morning Consult Political Intelligence — our flagship commercial data product measuring political attitudes in 43 countries on a daily basis. Daily risk ratings are available for Morning Consult Intelligence clients, including via API, facilitating higher-frequency assessments of political risk globally and systematic applications of our ratings data. Contact us with inquiries regarding commercial access.

• Risk Readings: Morning Consult’s political risk readings are measured as the simple intra-month average of (1) net approval of the incumbent chief executive and (2) net country trajectory, defined as the net share of adults in each market who say their country is headed in the right direction. Higher values correspond to lower risk. 
• Risk Ratings: Risk “ratings” reflect countries’ assignment into ordinal bands ranging from AAA (the highest rating, reflecting the lowest risk level) to U (the lowest rating, reflecting the highest risk level) based on their risk readings. Ratings of BBB- or higher, commonly used to denote the cutoff for investment grade markets and/or assets, correspond to risk readings above zero in Morning Consult data, reflecting net-positive public sentiment.
• Ratings Action: Indicates whether a market has experienced a ratings “Upgrade” or “Downgrade,” defined as a transition from a lower (higher) ratings band to a higher (lower) band.
• Ratings Watch: Indicates whether a market has been assigned an “Upside” or “Downside” watch, defined as a transition from one ratings notch to another within the same band, denoting markets whose risk profiles are worth monitoring but which are not currently subject to ratings action.
• Risk Trajectory: Indicates whether a country’s underlying risk readings are improving, worsening, or stable month-on-month, corresponding to a “positive,” “negative,” or “stable” trajectory.
• Trajectory Confidence: Indicates the statistical confidence in a given country’s risk trajectory as a function of the latest month-on-month change in risk.

Consult our Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional details, including more detailed information on ratings scales, and related confidence and volatility metrics.

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