Morning Consult’s Global Political Risk Ratings See Upside Potential For Japan & Malaysia, Downside Risk for Canada

NEW YORK — October 10, 2024 — The October 2024 release of Morning Consult’s Global Political Risk Ratings — high-frequency ratings for 36 markets derived from Morning Consult Intelligence data — sees upside potential for Japan and Malaysia and downside risk for Canada amid cross-cutting electoral dynamics.

“Developments in all three markets come amid the tail end of 2024’s global election supercycle, which has seen both change and continuity in major global markets. In a nod to persistent political risk among systemically important markets likely outlasting year-end, average risk levels among the G7 group of countries have recently stabilized but remain substantially underwater on a net basis,” Jason McMann, Morning Consult’s Head of Political Intelligence, notes. 

Key takeaways: 

• Japan: Ahead of Japan’s elections, Morning Consult has raised its rating for the country from B in August 2024 to B+ in September 2024. The improvement appears to be more a reaction against former Prime Minister Kishida than a strong endorsement of his successor.
• Malaysia: Morning Consult has issued an upside ratings watch for Malaysia, with the country moving to BBB+ from BBB this ratings cycle. This change is significant given the political challenges faced by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim throughout 2023 and 2024, and is supported by recent by-election victories for the incumbent unity government. 
• Canada: Morning Consult has issued a downside ratings watch for Canada, with its rating moving from B+ to B. The watch comes amid two no-confidence motions targeting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau which bookended the close of the country’s latest assessment period, alongside recent Liberal Party by-election losses, which collectively bode poorly for the incumbent government.

See below for Morning Consult’s latest ratings across all 36 markets. The latest ratings reflect data collected through September 30, 2024 and are issued on a monthly cadence, with higher frequency daily ratings data available for enterprise use.

If you would like a free, complimentary media account to Morning Consult Pro to access our Global Political Risk Ratings, contact us at [email protected].

Methodology: Morning Consult’s Political Risk Ratings are constructed using standardized, survey-derived risk metrics. All survey data used to produce the ratings was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All survey interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of adults in each country. Weighting parameters and target populations vary by country.

Consult our Risk Ratings Definitions and Methodology Primer for additional details.

Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for supplementary details on the underlying survey data, including sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording.

Requested Citation: Please credit Morning Consult in any coverage and link back here.  

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Contact: Anna Rose Pardue, [email protected]