Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State
Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Morning Consult is conducting thousands of surveys every day, asking U.S. voters if they'd vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump if the election were held today. In addition to our ongoing national tracking of that contest, we’re also tracking the presidential race at the state level, as well as key Senate and gubernatorial contests.
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Key Takeaways
The presidential election remains a toss-up, with neither candidate holding a lead outside the margin of sampling error in any Electoral College battleground.
In the race for the Senate, Democratic incumbents maintain leads in most states that we’re tracking, but Sherrod Brown of Ohio now trails Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. The cycle's most vulnerable Republican, Ted Cruz of Texas, has retaken the lead over his Democratic challenger.
We have not yet updated our tracking in Florida due to sampling issues related to surveys conducted around Hurricane Milton.
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Tracking the 2024 Presidential Election in Key States
- Harris leads Trump within the margin of sampling error in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
- Trump leads Harris inside the margin of error in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin.
- Trump leads Harris in Ohio by 7 points, outside the survey’s margin of error.
Presidential Trend Over Time
Tracking Key 2024 Senate Races
- Democrats in five states currently hold leads outside of the margin of sampling error, including Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan in their open-seat races, as well as incumbent Sens. Bob Casey of Ohio and Jacky Rosen of Nevada who face re-election.
- Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown of Ohio now trails his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno within the margin of error, while fellow Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin leads her challenger within the margin of sampling error.
- The most vulnerable Senate Republican this cycle, Ted Cruz of Texas, leads his Democratic challenger by 1 point.
Senate Trend Over Time
Tracking the 2024 Gubernatorial Race in North Carolina
- Attorney General Josh Stein (D) continues to lead embattled Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) by a large margin in 2024’s marquee gubernatorial matchup, with the latter running far behind the top of the ticket in North Carolina.
- Only 67% of likely Republican voters say they’d vote for Robinson if the election were held today, compared with 91% who’d vote for Trump.
Methodology
The latest surveys were conducted Oct. 6-15, 2024, among likely voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from +/-4 percentage points in Nevada, Maryland and Wisconsin to +/-2 percentage points. Responses from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania have margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
